美专家：薄熙来案宣告中共集体领导破产

至今为止美国对薄熙来事件保持袖手旁观的姿态，但由于掌握王立军提供的资料和掌控着薄瓜瓜的行踪，美国的这种袖手旁观显得意味深长。19日，美国资深情报专家指出：薄熙来案象征北京集体统治共识不再适用，好戏在后头。

据中央社19日报道“美国中央情报局前资深中国事务专家琼森今天指出，薄熙来案象征北京集体统治共识不再适用，包括美国在内的外国势力最好远观勿近，别管中国的闲事。”

华府智库「战略暨国际研究中心」（CSIS）新任中国研究主任琼森（Christopher Johnson），曾任中央情报局（CIA）资深中国事务研究员，过去20年间曾处理台海飞弹危机等重大国际事务。

琼森在「外交事务」（Foreign Affairs）期刊撰文指出，薄案虽然涉及法律，但北京高层卸除薄熙来的职务是政治企图，薄熙来胡作非为，他本人和妻子薄谷开来近乎色情猥亵的报导充斥媒体，这在过去中南海权力斗争极为罕见。

他表示，文化大革命期间，中国家族斗争杀红了眼，而如今牵扯到政治权力，更没有界限。今年秋天中南海政权移转，薄案的影响和后果将陆续浮现，好戏还在后头。

琼森分析，王立军向美国成都领事馆要求政治庇护，和遭谋杀的英国商人海伍德（Neil Heywood），背后有英国政府的介入，使得北京领导层握有大量所谓外国势力介入的证据，而中国社会正急切想了解，「恶意的外国势力」在薄案扮演的角色。

他认为，美国和其它国家看薄案最好静观其变，外界得避免管中国政权转移的家务事，从各角度来看，外人无法利用薄案遂行其它目的。

中国国家主席胡锦涛主政以来倡行的「北京集体领导共识」，以国家为主体的模式，似乎在中国跃升为国际强权的时刻发挥正面效用。但所谓集体共识决定过程，结果是推迟政策，或根本不做决定拖延问题，也使得胡锦涛的领导权力备受质疑。

琼森以美中关系发展为例研析，相对于过去中国领导人，难以看出胡锦涛过去10年愿意冒政治风险，推动华府北京之间的连系，但在北韩和美中军事联系上，中国保守势力介入，认为美国阻挠中国的崛起。

胡锦涛虽居高位10年，但无法控制中南海其它势力，反而附和保守声浪，造成华府北京关系无法推进，加深双方策略上的不信任。

琼森指出，薄案凸显北京集体领导模式的问题，所谓的「北京共识」已经破碎。

琼森（Christopher Johnson）的资料:

Christopher K. Johnson

Senior Adviser and Freeman Chair in China Studies

Programs:

Freeman Chair in China Studies

Topics:

Defense and Security, International Security, Nuclear Weapons, Trade and Economics

Regions:

China, East Asia and the Pacific, Southeast Asia

  

Christopher K. Johnson is a senior adviser and holds the Freeman Chair in China Studies at CSIS. An accomplished Asian affairs specialist, Mr. Johnson spent nearly two decades serving in the U.S. government’s intelligence and foreign affairs communities and has extensive experience analyzing and working in Asia on a diverse set of country-specific and transnational issues. Throughout his career, he has chronicled China’s dynamic political and economic transformation, the development of its robust military modernization program, and its resurgence as a regional and global power. He has frequently advised senior White House, cabinet, congressional, military, and foreign officials on the Chinese leadership and on Beijing’s foreign and security policies. 

 

Mr. Johnson worked as a senior China analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency, where he played a key role in the analytic support to policymakers during the 1996 Taiwan Strait missile crisis, the 1999 accidental bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, the downing of a U.S. reconnaissance aircraft on Hainan Island in 2001, and the SARS epidemic in 2003. He also helped shape senior officials’ understanding of the politics of the Jiang Zemin era, the successful leadership transition to Hu Jintao in 2002, and the preparations for the fall 2012 leadership succession. Mr. Johnson served as an intelligence liaison to two secretaries of state and their deputies on worldwide security issues and in 2011 was awarded the U.S. Department of State’s Superior Honor Award for outstanding support to the secretary and her senior staff. He also served abroad in a field site in Southeast Asia. Mr. Johnson graduated summa cum laude with bachelor’s degrees in history and political science from the University of California at San Diego (1994) and received his M.A. in security policy studies from the George Washington University (1996). He is a member of Phi Beta Kappa.